Former finance ministers launch ‘Lead, Not Leave’ to oppose Alberta separation referendum
Lead, Not Leave: Jim Dinning, Travis Toews and other leaders urge Alberta to abandon a separation referendum and pursue economic reforms and the energy MOU.
Alberta’s political debate over sovereignty intensified this week as a new group called Lead, Not Leave urged the provincial government to drop plans for an Alberta separation referendum and instead advance concrete economic policy. The founding letter, signed by high-profile figures including former finance ministers Jim Dinning and Travis Toews, argues the province should make the case for staying in Canada through credible proposals rather than a divisive vote. The group cites the energy memorandum of understanding negotiated between Alberta and Ottawa as the starting point for practical reforms to boost investment and jobs.
Veteran ministers launch Lead, Not Leave
Jim Dinning and Travis Toews, both widely recognized for their stewardship of Alberta’s finances in different eras, helped initiate the campaign this week. They and other signatories call for a focus on policy solutions that strengthen Alberta’s place within Canada rather than pursuing independence. The letter urges the provincial government to halt referendum preparations and to present policy alternatives that address the economic grievances motivating separatist sentiment.
The initiative frames its argument around governance and growth rather than partisan politics. Both Dinning and Toews emphasize that while Alberta has legitimate complaints about federal-provincial relations, independence is not a practical remedy for the province’s economic challenges.
Call to scrap Alberta separation referendum
Lead, Not Leave’s founding statement specifically asks the Alberta government not to hold a referendum tied to separation and to redirect resources toward policy work. The group argues a referendum would siphon political energy and public money into a process that would not itself fix the province’s structural economic issues. Founders warn the prospect of a binding vote would magnify uncertainty for businesses and investors at a time when stability is needed.
Premier Danielle Smith announced this month that a separation question will be included in a referendum scheduled for October 2026, a move that has sharpened debate across the province. Polling cited by various groups indicates a majority of Albertans still favour remaining in Canada, but business leaders and civic figures have expressed concern about the divisive effect of a referendum campaign.
Policy alternatives: energy MOU and pipelines
The Lead, Not Leave group points to the energy memorandum of understanding — negotiated between Alberta and federal officials — as a foundation for immediate action. Signatories say implementing the MOU’s measures and pursuing projects such as a new West Coast oil pipeline would generate tangible economic activity and reduce the perceived need for a sovereignty vote. They urge the provincial government to prioritize regulatory fixes, investment incentives and clearer project approvals that could unlock near-term construction and employment.
Supporters of the approach argue that delivering visible economic wins will undercut separatist arguments rooted in frustration over lost investment and market access. The group suggests a package of credible, explained policies will be more effective at persuading skeptical Albertans than a referendum campaign that raises doubt about the province’s future.
Economic concerns and business reaction
Business leaders have warned that the separation debate could chill investment decisions and stall projects already under consideration. Former finance minister Travis Toews warned this week that a full-blown referendum would create an investment climate “drenched in uncertainty,” a condition likely to slow capital commitments and hiring. Lead, Not Leave echoes those concerns, saying fiscal and regulatory stability are essential to attract large-scale infrastructure and energy projects.
Jim Dinning — credited in past decades with helping bring Alberta’s books back into balance — said the campaign’s goal is to address the causes behind separatist sentiment rather than vilify frustrated voters. He framed the group’s effort as practical: propose policies that respond to people’s economic anxieties and give them reason to reconsider support for separation.
Political context at western premiers conference
The issue surfaced prominently at the western premiers conference in Kananaskis on May 26, 2026, where provincial leaders discussed co-operation on energy and trade corridors. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew publicly urged Alberta to delay any referendum talk for a year or two while pipeline projects move toward construction. Alberta’s premier framed the referendum decision as part of her mandate to respond to a decade of economic strain, while also pointing to federal co-operation under the energy MOU.
The Kananaskis meeting underscored the regional implications of Alberta’s political path, with neighbouring premiers focusing on cross-border energy infrastructure and northern trade routes. Those conversations reinforced Lead, Not Leave’s argument that provincial leadership should emphasize project delivery and intergovernmental collaboration.
Next steps and public debate
Lead, Not Leave says it will host events and develop proposals aimed at convincing Albertans that remaining in Canada can deliver stronger economic outcomes. University of Alberta political scientist Jared Wesley, a signatory, said the group does not present a single political line but seeks to generate policy ideas that are both sound and politically persuasive. The campaign intends to publish recommendations and convene discussions in the months ahead to shift the public conversation toward constructive solutions.
Despite the initiative’s pleas, organizers acknowledge the referendum timetable may still proceed, and they urged authorities to ensure voters are fully informed if a vote goes forward. The group’s founders say their priority is to give Albertans alternatives rooted in job creation and economic growth rather than a referendum that would deepen uncertainty.
The campaign from seasoned finance figures adds a prominent voice to an unfolding debate about Alberta’s future, pushing policymakers to weigh the potential economic cost of a sovereignty referendum against the tangible gains of implementing practical reforms.
