Quebec electoral map redraw adds two ridings and reshapes key battlegrounds
A new Quebec electoral map finalized after a politically charged three‑year process adds two ridings and preserves contested districts, reshaping battlegrounds and altering projections ahead of the fall election.
New ridings and preserved seats
The province’s redrawn map increases the number of National Assembly ridings from 125 to 127 with the addition of Bellefeuille in the Laurentides and Marie‑Lacoste‑Gérin‑Lajoie in the Centre‑du‑Québec. Those changes reflect population shifts and were adopted after extended debate between the non‑partisan electoral commission and members of the Assembly.
Two ridings that the independent Commission de la représentation électorale had proposed to eliminate — Gaspé and Anjou–Louis‑Riel — were kept in the final map, a decision that inflamed criticism about political intervention. Parties across the spectrum publicly supported the new boundaries, an alignment observers say reflected both regional considerations and narrow political interests.
Projections for Bellefeuille and Marie‑Lacoste‑Gérin‑Lajoie
Analysts who transposed 2022 ballot returns onto the new map found the governing Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) would have taken both new ridings decisively under those results. In the Bellefeuille area the CAQ would have led with roughly 49 per cent against about 19 per cent for the Parti québécois (PQ), while Marie‑Lacoste‑Gérin‑Lajoie showed the CAQ near 52 per cent and the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) around 16 per cent.
Those two projected gains would have translated into a net increase of two seats for the CAQ in a hypothetical 2022 outcome under the new boundaries. Political modelers caution, however, that current polling trends and local dynamics could deliver different results in an actual vote held under the map this autumn.
Tighter contests in Laval and nearby suburbs
In Laval the redraw transferred part of Laval‑des‑Rapides into Mille‑Îles, narrowing what had been a 425‑vote PLQ margin to an estimated 106 votes under the 2022 redistribution. That change highlights how modest boundary shifts can amplify or erase small margins in urban and suburban ridings.
Despite that tightening in Mille‑Îles, province‑wide projections from polling aggregators indicate the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) remains favoured in the six Laval ridings overall. Other neighbouring shifts — notably in L’Assomption, which gained Lavaltrie and swapped other municipalities — have produced a modest boost for the PQ in redistributed results.
Regional pivots and party implications
Several regional ridings were also transformed into competitive battlegrounds by the redraw. Richmond, in the Eastern Townships, absorbed new municipalities and parts of Sherbrooke, turning a previously CAQ‑dominated seat into a three‑way pivot among the PLQ, PQ and CAQ. Québec solidaire (QS) also picked up modest ground in some transferred areas, altering local math for close races.
La Peltrie in the Capitale‑Nationale saw its boundaries adjusted to add the Les Saules neighbourhood of Québec while ceding several smaller municipalities to Portneuf. The PCQ’s prospects there are described by projections as “probable but not secure,” reflecting how boundary changes have trimmed the party’s share in the redistributed 2022 returns.
Legal and political battle over the redraw
The new map is the product of an unusually politicized process that stretched over roughly three years, pitting the independent commission’s recommendations against sustained intervention from the National Assembly. Lawmakers first moved to suspend parts of the commission’s plan and later enacted legislation to protect certain ridings, invoking regional representation as justification.
Those interventions drew legal scrutiny and public criticism from academics and former redistricting authorities who argued the actions risked undermining the principle of voter parity. Critics said preserving low‑population districts preserves disproportionate weight for some regions and turns the redistricting debate into a partisan contest over electoral advantage.
Methodology and caveats behind the projections
The redistributed projections are based on a seat‑level translation of roughly 18,000 polling‑station sections from the 2022 election into the new 2026 polygons, following methods similar to those used by Elections Québec in past redistributions. Sections deemed shared were allocated only when a single new riding did not contain at least 90 per cent of the old section, and data from Statistics Canada were used to apportion votes where boundaries overlapped.
Analysts also cautioned about limitations: advance votes and special ballots required prorated redistribution methods, and small differences between 2022 and 2026 polygon mapping mean transpositions are estimates rather than exact counts. Modelled outcomes therefore illustrate how the Quebec electoral map can shift the starting line for campaigns, not how voters will ultimately decide on election day.
The altered map has produced new local dynamics and turn‑key battlegrounds across urban, suburban and regional ridings, giving parties fresh strategic choices as they approach the campaign.
Voter behaviour, campaign organization and current political momentum will determine whether the boundary changes decide the next government or simply reshape contests that remain tightly contested.
